By R. D. Shaver, Michael Kennedy
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Additional resources for Benefits of Positive Passenger Profiling on Baggage Screening Requirements
Our calculations will not include any reactive or proactive profiling strategies. --------------------------------------* We will also show an additional, more complex calculation for the impact on the nation’s economy that is not a linear sum of these two curves. 39 Passenger Arrival Time for 99% Assurance That Bag Makes Plane: Combined ORD & DFW Passenger Planned Arrival Time (minutes before scheduled departure) 120 110 Rel. 8 100 Rel. 9 90 Rel. 0 80 Probability of Bag Missing Plane = 1% 70 60 50 Max Passenger Profiling = 50% 40 30 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Number of EDS Machines Deployed 40 The calculations shown on this chart make the following assumptions: • There is an irreducible checking-in-the-baggage-to-loading-the-baggage-onto-the-airplane timeline that we assume to be 30 minutes.
As we increase the delay threshold, L, the fraction of bags scanned for any maximum delay is increased. We do not drop bags from the scanning pool when the queuing delays do not warrant it. These curves are sensitive to the level of demand and the machine buy size, so quantitative generalizations would not be appropriate. Qualitatively, it should be clear that delaying profiling until thresholds of five minutes or more has the potential of sharply increasing the total fraction of bags scanned while keeping delays near the level achieved if the profiling strategy were nonresponsive.
The chart gives the reader a sense as to the size of the increase. 5 (for comparison purposes, we have duplicated the noprofiling curves and shown them as dashed curves). It shows the maximum expected delays for machine reliabilities of 100 percent, 90 percent, and 80 percent. The shape of the curves is similar to that in the no-profiling chart, but the delays are reduced accordingly. 8 case), with a maximum point delay of about five minutes. Without profiling, these numbers would have been more than 200 minutes and 31 minutes, respectively.