By M. Boutillier
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Extra resources for Economic Modelling at the Bank of France: Financial Deregulation and Economic Development in France (Routledge New International Studies in Economic Modelling)
G. 20 per cent to 30 per cent, some lower-risk assets in their portfolio. French authors either disaggregate OPCVMs or they do not. For instance, all OPCVM shares can be included in stocks (Boutillier and Charpin, 1986). Unfortunately, this method forgets the specificity of bond OPCVMs or money-market OPCVMs, which are Economic Modelling At The Banque De France 16 indeed close substitutes to respectively bonds and bills. e. without any OPCVM (cf. Artus and Bleuze, 1989). The wealth share held in OPCVMs is then used as an additional explanatory variable.
The gap between the middle line and the upper one (respectively the lower one) corresponds therefore to the wealth held in low-risk OPCVMs (respectively in high-risk ones) by French households. 1 High-risk shares (OPCVM monétaires et obligataires). In 1987, the adjusted high-risk share, instead of being 50 per cent above its 1972 level, is close to it. 3) shows that with a sample beginning after 1976 the gross share is no longer difference-stationary. But the adjusted share remains I(1) and it is less ‘explosive’.
We will nevertheless use income rather than wealth, because financial wealth is highly correlated with risky returns (because of the capital gains component which enters both variables). One also needs to consider a dynamic adjustment towards the optimal high-risk wealth share, which is some function of the above-mentioned right-hand side (RHS) variables. A strictly static approach would naturally be unrealistic because there are transaction costs when allocating new cash flows or when reallocating existing stocks.